The case for Jacoby Ellsbury for American League MVP

Despite playing in Boston, one of the biggest baseball markets in the country, Jacoby Ellsbury has actually flown slightly under the radar this season. The Red Sox centerfielder has bounced back from a rocky 2010, when he was injured most of the season, to put up career-best power and defensive numbers. Yet, with the high-profile offseason acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford combined with Boston's favorites, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, it is somewhat easy to overlook Ellsbury's fantastic season and why he should be the American League MVP.

To put it simply, Ellsbury is without a significant weakness. In the past, he was fast and an above-average defender, but did not hit for significant power. However, this season (as of Sept. 26) Ellsbury has 31 home runs in 156 games, whereas in the first 349 games of his career he hit only 20. Not only that, he also has 46 doubles and five triples, culminating in a .552 slugging percentage. In any context, these are excellent numbers, but consider that offense in baseball is at its lowest level since 1992, right before the so-called "steroid era" began. Consequently, Ellsbury ranks eighth in MLB in weighted on-base average, which combines a player's on-base and slugging contributions to his team.
That's only the beginning of Ellsbury's immense impact on the Red Sox. He stole 38 bases out in 53 attempts and only grounded out into eight double plays all season, thus rating as an above-average baserunner. This is hardly surprising considering that Ellsbury's fantastic speed has historically been his calling card. As the primary leadoff hitter for the Red Sox, Ellsbury has given the team a great power hitter and a speed threat in over 700 plate appearances this season.

While Ellsbury's hitting and baserunning by themselves give him an excellent case of winning the MVP, what sets him apart is his well above-average defense in centerfield, the but why most important position in the outfield. Fangraphs, a highly touted website focusing on baseball statistics, rates Ellsbury as having prevented 16 more runs defensively than the average centerfielder, best among centerfielders in the major leagues. Even with a slightly below-average arm, Ellsbury uses his speed and instincts to get to a high percentage of baseballs in his direction, and he has yet to commit an error this entire season.

All of Ellsbury's positive contributions give him, per Fangraphs, a total WAR (wins above replacement) of 9.7, meaning that the Red Sox won about 10 more games than they would have been expected to with a replacement-level centerfielder playing everyday. No one else in baseball has a higher WAR than 8.4, and only seven other American Leaguers have a WAR of at least seven. Even if we say that the defensive metrics that Fangraphs use overestimate his value, he has still been the best player not only in the American League but also throughout baseball. Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays has had a better offensive season than Ellsbury and had the best first half in all of baseball, but he has been unable to keep the same pace after the All-Star break and is not even remotely in the same class as a defender.

Detroit Tigers starter Justin Verlander has certainly pitched fantastically, and the New York Yankees' Curtis Granderson and Tigers' Miguel Cabrera had remarkable offensive seasons as well. No one, however, has played a more complete and consistent game than Ellsbury has for the Boston Red Sox. I hope the fans and the media will no longer overlook him when everyone steps back to appreciate the historic season that he has achieved.