The NBA’s 2010 free agency officially begins on July 1, but that hasn’t stopped basketball fans from theorizing, conversing and generally obsessing about the most heralded free agency class of any sport in history. So significant is this year’s group of NBA free agents that teams such as the New York Knicks, Washington Wizards and Chicago Bulls have essentially thrown away several seasons just to have enough cap-space to sign one or two elite players this summer.
If you follow the NBA even casually, you know a good number of names that can change destinations this summer. Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire, Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer have all been all-stars for several years and all are under 30 years of age. However, one name towers above the others in importance: Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James. Since coming out of high school in 2003 as one of the best prospects in the past 30 years, James has become the best player in the NBA, winning the Most Valuable Player award last year and considered a lock to repeat this year. However, it’s not just James’s talent on the court; he is extremely popular, marketable, and at the young age of 25 has a long future ahead of him.
So where will everybody wind up? Only one thing is certain: No team in the NBA will make any free agency moves of consequence until James decides his future. The favorite to land James has to be his current team, the Cavaliers, who ended the regular season with the best record in the NBA. The entire Cleveland organization has worked itself around giving LeBron as talented of a supporting cast as possible so he will have less motivation to leave, bringing in forward Antawn Jamison during the season. After losing to the Orlando Magic in the playoffs last season, the Cavaliers are the favorites to win the NBA title, and if they do, I think it is a near guarantee that James returns. Furthermore, since James currently plays for Cleveland, they have an advantage in that they can offer an extra year of a maximum deal, which would give him a higher total salary by a rather significant margin. If Cleveland does not win the title this year, James, an Ohio native, seems unlikely to leave a city that so reveres him.
However, there are definite advantages that other teams have that Cleveland does not. Take the New York Knicks, a team that has cleared enough salary next year to sign two star players. With only four players currently under contract for next year, the Knicks can allow James to choose which players he wants to play with that are available. New York is also the biggest and most marketable city, and James has always expressed a love for playing at Madison Square Garden, the Knicks’ home arena. However, he was not even in the league the last time the Knicks were a title contender, and they would not have the same talent James has in Cleveland even if they bring in someone like Wade or Bosh as well.
The Knicks, along with their competitors, are in the difficult position of not knowing whether they will be able to sign a premiere free agent, but what if James stays in Cleveland? Wade appears likely to stay in Miami, where they look to sign a big man, with Stoudemire as the prohibitive favorite. Bosh is probably leaving the Toronto Raptors, but he appears likely to sign on with more of a contender, such as Chicago or Dallas, his hometown. So a team like the Knicks would be left with the option of either signing guys like Johnson and Boozer and making themselves a definite playoff team but not among the elite, or waiting yet another year to spend their money on the 2011 free agent class. While it might be wiser to save the salary cap space if they cannot get elite talent, tremendous pressure is on these poorly performing franchises to improve their team, and in a hurry. And with there being more teams in need of a marquee free agent than there are available, July 2010 is looking to be a high-stakes poker match. Your move, LeBron.
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